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Statistics

NY open backtest

NY Open read – 0 days where all three predictions were ≥ 70% (out of 9 days), 2026-09-14 → 2026-09-24

seed min70_2026-09-14_2026-09-24 · data always only up to 9:35 ET, history only before the given day · blue area = 9:35-10:35 window, blue lines = previous day's IB, gray = overnight H/L, orange = ±100 pts from the 9:35 price

filter: only days where the 150+ / 200+ / 100+ one-side predictions are all >= 70%

no day met the 70% condition

for comparison - 9 days BELOW 70%: range 150+ 56% / range 200+ 33% / 100+ one side 67%, all 3 targets hit 33%

All days in the test (✓ = all three predictions met the threshold)

>=70%            day          regime  ATR p150 p200 p100/1s  range  1side range 150+ range 200+ 100+ one side 100pt first
      2026-09-14 Mon EXTREME EXPANSE  360  73%  45%     82%    210    184        YES        YES           YES          up
      2026-09-15 Tue     RANGE BOUND  428  43%  18%     56%    152     84        YES         no            no            
      2026-09-16 Wed     RANGE BOUND  418  40%  15%     54%    111     78         no         no            no            
      2026-09-17 Thu         EXPANSE  457  75%  56%     81%    136    100         no         no           YES          up
      2026-09-18 Fri         NO READ  473  81%  49%     85%    152    118        YES         no           YES        down
      2026-09-21 Mon         NO READ  450  76%  41%     80%    296    279        YES        YES           YES          up
      2026-09-22 Tue     RANGE BOUND  527  66%  34%     69%    133    133         no         no           YES          up
      2026-09-23 Wed     RANGE BOUND  548  70%  39%     72%    314    284        YES        YES           YES        down
      2026-09-24 Thu         NO READ  539  90%  63%     90%    107     98         no         no            no            

No day qualified – all 9 days for reference

2026-09-14 Mon EXTREME EXPANSE score +2 · ATR 360 · 9:35 = 28905.00

prediction: range 150+ 73% · range 200+ 45% · 100+ one side 82%

actual: 9:35-10:35 range 210 pts · max from 9:35 up 184 / down 26 pts · 100 pts first up · full RTH range 424 pts

range 150+ YES (09:49) · range 200+ YES (10:10) · 100+ one side YES (09:48)

prev IB Hprev IB LON HON L+100-10004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:00

2026-09-15 Tue RANGE BOUND score -2 · ATR 428 · 9:35 = 29385.50

prediction: range 150+ 43% · range 200+ 18% · 100+ one side 56%

actual: 9:35-10:35 range 152 pts · max from 9:35 up 68 / down 84 pts · full RTH range 246 pts

range 150+ YES (10:23) · range 200+ no · 100+ one side no

prev IB Hprev IB LON HON L+100-10004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:00

2026-09-16 Wed RANGE BOUND score -1 · ATR 418 · 9:35 = 29405.75

prediction: range 150+ 40% · range 200+ 15% · 100+ one side 54%

actual: 9:35-10:35 range 111 pts · max from 9:35 up 78 / down 32 pts · full RTH range 497 pts

range 150+ no · range 200+ no · 100+ one side no

prev IB Hprev IB LON HON L+100-10004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:00

2026-09-17 Thu EXPANSE score +1 · ATR 457 · 9:35 = 29641.75

prediction: range 150+ 75% · range 200+ 56% · 100+ one side 81%

actual: 9:35-10:35 range 136 pts · max from 9:35 up 100 / down 36 pts · 100 pts first up · full RTH range 188 pts

range 150+ no · range 200+ no · 100+ one side YES (10:28)

prev IB Hprev IB LON HON L+100-10004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:00

2026-09-18 Fri NO READ score -1 · ATR 473 · 9:35 = 29810.75

prediction: range 150+ 81% · range 200+ 49% · 100+ one side 85%

actual: 9:35-10:35 range 152 pts · max from 9:35 up 34 / down 118 pts · 100 pts first down · full RTH range 278 pts

range 150+ YES (10:16) · range 200+ no · 100+ one side YES (10:16)

prev IB Hprev IB LON HON L+100-10004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:00

2026-09-21 Mon NO READ score -1 · ATR 450 · 9:35 = 30252.00

prediction: range 150+ 76% · range 200+ 41% · 100+ one side 80%

actual: 9:35-10:35 range 296 pts · max from 9:35 up 279 / down 16 pts · 100 pts first up · full RTH range 646 pts

range 150+ YES (09:52) · range 200+ YES (10:01) · 100+ one side YES (09:45)

prev IB Hprev IB LON HON L+100-10004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:00

2026-09-22 Tue RANGE BOUND score -1 · ATR 527 · 9:35 = 30864.75

prediction: range 150+ 66% · range 200+ 34% · 100+ one side 69%

actual: 9:35-10:35 range 133 pts · max from 9:35 up 133 / down 0 pts · 100 pts first up · full RTH range 302 pts

range 150+ no · range 200+ no · 100+ one side YES (10:12)

prev IB Hprev IB LON HON L+100-10004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:00

2026-09-23 Wed RANGE BOUND score -2 · ATR 548 · 9:35 = 30926.50

prediction: range 150+ 70% · range 200+ 39% · 100+ one side 72%

actual: 9:35-10:35 range 314 pts · max from 9:35 up 30 / down 284 pts · 100 pts first down · full RTH range 370 pts

range 150+ YES (10:07) · range 200+ YES (10:10) · 100+ one side YES (10:02)

prev IB Hprev IB LON HON L+100-10004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:00

2026-09-24 Thu NO READ score +1 · ATR 539 · 9:35 = 30540.00

prediction: range 150+ 90% · range 200+ 63% · 100+ one side 90%

actual: 9:35-10:35 range 107 pts · max from 9:35 up 98 / down 8 pts · full RTH range 334 pts

range 150+ no · range 200+ no · 100+ one side no

prev IB Hprev IB LON HON L+100-10004:0005:0006:0007:0008:0009:0010:0011:00